Thursday, April 30, 2009

Swine Flu Worst Case Scenario - 1700 in US infected in four weeks

Swine Flu Worst Case Scenario: Computer Simulations confirms that the whole Swine Flu scare is probably way overblown:

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(PhysOrg.com) -- Large-scale computer simulations run by Northwestern University researchers show worst-case scenario projections of approximately 1,700 cases of swine flu for the entire United States four weeks from now.
Associate Professor Dirk Brockmann and his research group have found that the major areas projected to have incidents in the worst-case scenario include California, Texas and Florida. Worst-case scenario means that no measures have been taken to combat the spread of disease. These numbers would, of course, be lessened by preventive measures already under way.
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That is 1,700 people infected, only a fraction of them will die. It is sad, but there is no need for an end of the world panic.

There is a video showing the worst-case scenario, day by day.

This was interesting:

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One way to track how people travel is to monitor how money travels. In a 2006 study, Brockmann used data from WheresGeorge.com -- a site where users enter the serial numbers from their dollar bills in order to track their travels -- to create a model to predict the probability of a bill staying within a 10-kilometer radius over time. From that information, Brockmann found a key factor in his disease-spread modeling approach: very accurate datasets on human mobility. This multi-scale human mobility network included small-scale daily commuting traffic, intermediate traffic and long-distance air travel, which helps determine how a disease could potentially spread.


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Just think the next time you get one of the WheresGeorge dollars, but entering where you found it, you help scientists understand how people travel.


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Technorati tags: Swine, Flu

With this perspective, why is the Swine Flu getting so much press?

CNN reports that Regular flu has killed thousands since January:

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(CNN) -- There had been no confirmed deaths in the United States related to swine flu as of Tuesday afternoon. But another virus had killed thousands of people since January and is expected to keep killing hundreds of people every week for the rest of the year.

That one? The regular flu.


An outbreak of swine flu that is suspected in more than 150 deaths in Mexico and has sickened dozens of people in the United States and elsewhere has grabbed the attention of a nervous public and of medical officials worried the strain will continue to mutate and spread.
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The article puts this in perspective with:

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But even if there are swine-flu deaths outside Mexico -- and medical experts say there very well may be -- the virus would have a long way to go to match the roughly 36,000 deaths that seasonal influenza causes in the United States each year.
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I guess it is worth paying some attention to the Swine Flu, but it seems like it is a lot of noise of a small thing.

(Hat tip: Risks)


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Technorati tags: Swine, Flu

Reminder - send in a post for the next Carnival of Homeschooling

Andrea Hermitt will be hosting the Carnival of Homeschooling next week at the Atlanta Homeschooling Examiner.

As always, entries to the Carnival of Homeschooling are due Monday evening at 6:00 PM Pacific Standard Time.

Here are the instructions for sending in a submission.


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Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, parenting, children, education,

Update on Baby Bop

Janine and I signed the adoption papers for Baby Bop yesterday. The social worker came to our house. It took about an hour.

Next she'll do some more paperwork, probably today, and then work with her supervisor. Tomorrow or Monday she'll schedule a court date. Then some Monday in May we'll all go before a judge. This will include Janine, myself, our three daughters, Baby Bop, and my parents.

In thirty days Baby Bop should be ours!


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From the archives - India and private schools

This report on private schools in India is five years old:

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MANUA, India — In this democracy of more than one billion people, an educational revolution is under way, its telltale signs the small children everywhere in uniforms and ties. From slums to villages, the march to private education, once reserved for the elite, is on.
On the four-mile stretch of road between this village in Bihar State, in the north, and the district capital, Hajipur, there are 17 private schools (called here "public" schools).
They range from the Moonlight Public School where, for 40 rupees a month, less than a dollar, 200 children learn in one long room that looks like an educational sweatshop, to the DAV School, which sits backed up to a banana grove and charges up to 150 rupees a month, or more than $3. Eleven months after opening, it already has 600 students from 27 villages.
There are at least 100 more private schools in Hajipur, a city of 300,000; hundreds more in Patna, the state capital; and tens of thousands more across India.
The schools, founded by former teachers, landowners, entrepreneurs and others, and often of uneven quality, have capitalized on parental dismay over the even poorer quality of government schools. Parents say private education, particularly when English is the language of instruction, is their children's only hope for upward mobility.
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I wonder if homeschooling in India will take off some day?


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Technorati tags: private privates, home school, home education, parenting, children, education, India

A recent article from Isabel Lyman

Isabel Lyman's The Homeschooling Revolution was one of the first blogs I ever read. She did a great job covering homeschooling news. I was sad when she stopped blogging. Isabel also wrote a book of the same name, published nine years ago. I had the privilege to interview her three years ago.

I was pleased to find she has recently written about homeschooling. In Trailblazers: Tale of a Tween and Teen she writes about two homeschoolers. The first is about a homeschooler in Florida:

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At age 12, Sky is the youngest student (ever!) to attend Florida International University, located in Miami, Florida. He’s double majoring in physics and mathematics with a minor in astronomy. He hopes to graduate with his bachelor’s degrees when he turns 17. Since he’s participating in a dual-enrollment program, he will finish the high school component of his education this spring.
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The article goes on about Sky's amazing accomplishments.

The second featured homeschooler is a teenager in the UK who was recently in a BBC show:

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Meanwhile, across the Atlantic Ocean and deep in rural England is where Deborah
13: Servant of God
was filmed.
The one-hour BBC documentary stars Deborah Drapper, a 13-year-old, who, like Sky Choi, leads an unconventional life. The young teenager is an outspoken evangelical Christian who learns at ome and resides with her family in a farmhouse in picturesque Dorset. When quizzed by the BBC interviewer, Deborah, who has a computer but no access to television, admits to not knowing who Victoria “Posh Spice” Beckham or Britney Spears is. Nor is she interested in fashion fads or partying with other teenagers. Conversely, she can recite the Ten Commandments, thinks that evolution is a fairy tale for grownups, and loves to learn: everything from speech to West African agriculture captivates her. She also participates in that most modern of pastimes –blogging.
The film’s creators tried a little too hard to make Deborah look like everybody’s favorite
stereotype of a holy-roller homeschooler –brainwashed, sheltered, and God-crazed. But it’s the products of all that carefree liberal parenting —the young Brits whom Deborah is shown
evangelizing —that come across as boorish, hedonistic, and boring. Deborah, in contrast,
appears poised, principled, and daring.

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It is nice to still see Isabel writing about homeschooling!


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Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, education, , , ,

Another instance of teaching fiction as history

Last week I posted a link from my archives about how public schools often teach a fictional account of history. Joanne Jacobs has a post that shows this trend continues - Textbooks push the softer side of Islam:

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Textbooks are pushing a PC version of Islam, reports the American Textbook Council in a study of the most commonly used junior high and high school texts. “Jihad,” commonly defined in the ’90s as “sacred” or “holy” struggle or “holy war,” was a struggle “to do one’s best to resist temptation and overcome evil” in Houghton Mifflin’s junior high textbook. That wasn’t soft enough. By 2005, the company “apparently had removed jihad from its entire series of social studies textbooks,” the report finds.
Writing in the Christian Science Monitor, Gary Bauer complains that textbooks are “intentionally vague” about sharia law, “the Islamic code that can be used to subjugate women and deal death to wayward believers.”

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There is a clear double standard in reporting the history of Christianity and Islam, from the report Gary Bauer writes:

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One book describes the Crusades as “religious wars launched against Muslims by European Christians.” But when Muslims attacked Christians and took their land, the process is referred to as “building” an empire.
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With homeschooling you can give your children a much more accurate understanding of history.


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Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, parenting, children, education, government schools, public school, public education

Our life - worth saving?

I like this thought:

A doctor saves lives--it's up to people to create lives that are worth saving.
-Philip Gold


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Technorati tags: life, value

Other homeschooling carnivals

Talking to Myself is hosting this week's Hands On Homeschool Blog Carnival.

Golden Acorn Homeschool is hosting the latest Charlotte Mason Blog Carnival.

Canadian Home Educators Blog Carnival only had one participant. If you homeschool in Canada, consider participating.

The Weird, Unsocialized Homeschoolers hosted the recent edition of the Homeschool Showcase.

The Heart of the Matter Online is winding up their eight week More Organized Homeschool Carnival, here's week 6, which is on organizing your kitchen.

Again, if you know of any other active homeschooling carnivals, please tell me.


Update I - 30 Apr 09
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I found two more homeschool carnivals:

The April edition of the Homeschooled Kids Blog Carnival is up at Homeschooling Ideas. You can submit to this carnival by clicking here.

The April edition of the Homeschool History Buffs is up at The Tie That Binds Us. To submit a post, click here.

In addition to the Carnival of Homeschooling there are now eight active homeschooling carnivals!


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Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, parenting, children, education

Online tracking of the Swine Flue

The swine flue will be big news for awhile. One of our local high schools is closed. I'm sure more will follow. The scare is this will turn into a pandemic, with lots of people catching the disease, and many dying.

While we wait to see if this will blow over and become huge, there are a few web sites you can use to track the status.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is one of the best known. They have a page for just the Swine Flue.

The HealthMap uses Google Map technology to show outbreaks of various diseases around the world. You can select just the Swine Flue.

Google has a Flu Trends site with a graph and a map showing flue activity and the status by state for the United States.

(Hat tip: Technology Review)


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Technorati tags: Swine, Flue

Are you looking for a job?

In this economy we all know people who are looking for a job.

My mother found a good web site to check out: SimplyHired.

Here's Kim Komando's description of the site:

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Simply Hired's goal is to build the largest online database of jobs. That's a lofty goal!
Simply Hired has a good start, though, with more than 2.5 million listings.
These jobs aren't on Simply Hired's site. Rather, Simply Hired does the heavy lifting for you. It searches other job sites and lists openings in one place.
To make things even easier, Simply Hired will alert you to jobs that match your search. That means you have some time to focus on your online reputation!
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Technorati tags: job, search

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Insider's view of Wikipedia

Wikipedia was suppose to be a central place for all the information anyone would ever need. For the first few years the repository exploded. I've read a couple grumbles about particular Wikipedia individuals who had axes to grind in making sure certain articles only presented the "right" view.

Recently things may have gotten worse. MrMerlot is a infrequent contributor to Wikipedia. He is an insider, but not one of the movers and shakers. He reports in Wikipedia: Lord of the Flies and Banned from Wikipedia: The Aftermath [reconsideration]. It appears that Wikipedia may becoming more and more dictatorial and bureaucratic.

It would be a sad ending to what once had great promise.


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Technorati tags: Wikipedia

What do we really need?

Found on a bumper sticker:

Fountain of youth?
We have enough youth,
what we need
is a fountain of smart...


This reminds me of a quote:

Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon.
- Susan Ertz

If anyone finds a fountain of smart, please tell me, I'd like a drink. :-)


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Technorati tags: youth, immortality, smart

Dana is back online

Dana of Principled Discovery is home and recovering!


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Technorati tags: recovering

Why aren't we happier?

Good thought for the day:

"If we only wanted to be happy, it would be easy; but we want to be happier than other people, which is almost always difficult since we think them happier than they are."
- Montesquieu


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Technorati tags: happiness

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The Carnival of Homeschooling is up - The No Child Left Inside edition

Susan is hosting this week's Carnival of Homeschooling at Corn and Oil.

It is interesting how you can read what you expect to read. At the start of the carnival I first thought Susan had a theme of "No Child Left Behind." It wasn't until a few seconds later I realized she was playing on the famous, or infamous, law with a small switch in words: No Child Left Inside!

Clever.

Carnival of Homeschooling



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Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, parenting, children, education,

Which part of the world are you in?

Good thought:

I don't divide the world into the weak and the strong, or the successes and the failures, those who make it or those who don't. I divide the world into learners and non-learners.
-Benjamin Barber


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Friday, April 24, 2009

It is an amazing world - using a cell phone with an ultrasound

I carry in my planner an ultrasound picture of one of my daughters. It was such an amazing experience to see the little body moving inside Janine.

A couple researchers have made it possible to use a cell phone with an ultra sound device. Ultrasound to Go explains:

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In a twist of engineering that could redefine mobile medicine, researchers have built an ultrasound device that can be plugged directly into a smart phone's USB port. The system can capture ultrasound images of pregnant bellies and blocked carotid arteries, display them immediately on-screen, and even use the phone's capabilities to send that data just about anywhere in the world.
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Typically these devices cost any where from $10,000 to $25,000. With the cell phone approach a doctor can get the price way down. William Richard and David Zar did the research. William hopes to get the final product down in the $200 range.

The article explains how this will also allow poor communities, and nations, to have access to ultrasound technology.

It is an amazing world.


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Another beautiful picture from APOD -

Frank Barrett gave me permission to post this picture he and Steve Davis took of the Seagull Nebula:









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Technorati tags: , , Frank Barrett, Steve Davis, Seagull Seagull

From the archives - 1000 marbles

This story helps put things into perspective:

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A Thousand Marbles
author Jeff Davis

The older I get, the more I enjoy Saturday mornings. Perhaps it's the quiet solitude that comes with being the first to rise, or maybe it's the unbounded joy of not having to be at work. Either way, the first few hours of a Saturday morning are most enjoyable.
A few weeks ago, I was shuffling toward the basement shack with a steaming cup of coffee in one hand and the morning paper in the other. What began as a typical Saturday morning, turned into one of those lessons that life seems to hand you from time to time. Let me tell you about it.
I turned the dial up into the phone portion of the band on my ham radio in order to listen to a Saturday morning swap net. Along the way, I came across an older sounding chap, with a tremendous signal and a golden voice. You know the kind-he sounded like he should be in the broadcasting business. He was telling whoever he was talking with something about "a thousand marbles."
I was intrigued and stopped to listen to what he had to say. "Well, Tom, it sure sounds like you're busy with your job. I'm sure they pay you well but it's a shame you have to be away from home and your family so much. Hard to believe a young fellow should have to work sixty or seventy hours a week to make ends meet. Too bad you missed your daughter's dance recital."
He continued, "Let me tell you something Tom, something that has helped me keep a good perspective on my own priorities."
And that's when he began to explain his theory of a "thousand marbles." "You see, I sat down one day and did a little arithmetic. The average person lives about seventy- five years. I know, some live more and some live less, but on average, folks live about seventy-five years."
"Now then, I multiplied 75 times 52 and I came up with 3900 which is the number of Saturdays that the average person has in their entire lifetime. Now stick with me Tom, I'm getting to the important part."
"It took me until I was fifty-five years old to think about all this in any detail", he went on, "and by that time I had lived through over twenty-eight hundred Saturdays. I got to thinking that if I lived to be seventy-five, I only had about a thousand of them left to enjoy."
"So I went to a toy store and bought every single marble they had. I ended up having to visit three toy stores to round-up 1000 marbles. I took them home and put them inside of a large, clear plastic container right here in the shack next to my gear. Every Saturday since then, I have taken one marble out and thrown it away."
"I found that by watching the marbles diminish, I focused more on the really important things in life. There is nothing like watching your time here on this earth run out to help get your priorities straight."
"Now let me tell you one last thing before I sign-off with you and take my lovely wife out for breakfast.
This morning, I took the very last marble out of the container. I figure if I make it until next Saturday then I have been given a little extra time. And the one thing we can all use is a little more time."
"It was nice to meet you Tom, I hope you spend more time with your family, and I hope to meet you again here on the band. 75 year Old Man, this is K9NZQ, clear and going QRT, good morning!"
You could have heard a pin drop on the band when this fellow signed off. I guess he gave us all a lot to think about. I had planned to work on the antenna that morning, and then I was going to meet up with a few hams to work on the next club newsletter. Instead, I went upstairs and woke my wife up with a kiss. "C'mon honey, I'm taking you and the kids to breakfast."
"What brought this on?" she asked with a smile. "Oh, nothing special, it's just been a long time since we spent a Saturday together with the kids. Hey, can we stop at a toy store while we're out? I need to buy some marbles."
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Copyright © 1999 by Jeffrey Davis.
Used with permission.


(Update I: 23 May 2009)

In response to one of the comments I asked Jeff and he said the story was based on a real event, but he did emblish a bit. The call sign was made up for anonymity.


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Technorati tags: life, perspective, 1000 marbles

From the archives - stamina

Here's one of the lessons we're trying to teach our children:

The wayside of business is full of brilliant men who started out with a spurt, and lacked the stamina to finish. Their places were taken by patient and unshowy plodders who never knew when to quit.
- J. R. Todd


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Technorati tags: stamina

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Reminder - send in a post for the next Carnival of Homeschooling

Susan will be hosting the Carnival of Homeschooling next week at her blog Corn and Oil.

As always, entries to the Carnival of Homeschooling are due Monday evening at 6:00 PM Pacific Standard Time.

Here are the instructions for sending in a submission.


Carnival of Homeschooling



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Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, parenting, children, education,