Thursday, April 30, 2009

Swine Flu Worst Case Scenario - 1700 in US infected in four weeks

Swine Flu Worst Case Scenario: Computer Simulations confirms that the whole Swine Flu scare is probably way overblown:

( -- Large-scale computer simulations run by Northwestern University researchers show worst-case scenario projections of approximately 1,700 cases of swine flu for the entire United States four weeks from now.
Associate Professor Dirk Brockmann and his research group have found that the major areas projected to have incidents in the worst-case scenario include California, Texas and Florida. Worst-case scenario means that no measures have been taken to combat the spread of disease. These numbers would, of course, be lessened by preventive measures already under way.

That is 1,700 people infected, only a fraction of them will die. It is sad, but there is no need for an end of the world panic.

There is a video showing the worst-case scenario, day by day.

This was interesting:

One way to track how people travel is to monitor how money travels. In a 2006 study, Brockmann used data from -- a site where users enter the serial numbers from their dollar bills in order to track their travels -- to create a model to predict the probability of a bill staying within a 10-kilometer radius over time. From that information, Brockmann found a key factor in his disease-spread modeling approach: very accurate datasets on human mobility. This multi-scale human mobility network included small-scale daily commuting traffic, intermediate traffic and long-distance air travel, which helps determine how a disease could potentially spread.


Just think the next time you get one of the WheresGeorge dollars, but entering where you found it, you help scientists understand how people travel.

Technorati tags: Swine, Flu


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Sam said...

As people around the world anxiously refresh Internet maps showing new locations of suspected swine flu infections, a Northwestern University professor has already mapped out the worst case scenario for the outbreak. In four weeks, around 1,700 Americans could be infected with the disease. Each year the Flu hospitalizes over 200,000 Americans and kills over 36,000 - that's right, about 100 people per day die from the Flu.