Pandemic

While running an errand, I listened to a talk radio discussion about the possibility of a bird flu pandemic. The World Health Organization reports avian influenza has brought the world perilously close to a new flu pandemic. [At this time, there is no evidence that H5N1 has achieved the ability to transmit readily from human-to-human - a requirement for a pandemic to start. But, scientists fear that this virus may mutate with a common human flu virus and acquire that ability.]

"Even in the experts' best-case scenario, 7 million deaths, a flu pandemic could slow travel to a trickle, lead cities to forbid inessential gatherings, and precipitate a worldwide depression. Preparing for it could include, among other things: national governments streamlining vaccine approval procedures; school boards deciding whether and how to close the schools for extended periods; businesses planning for the twin problems of absenteeism apresentationism (sick people bringing the virus to work with them); hospitals stockpiling antiviral medications and personal protective equipment for staff; communities figuring out how to recruit and use volunteers to keep essential services running, including the all-important survivors of the first pandemic wave, who will be the only ones immune before a vaccine becomes available."


To put this in perspective, I did a little research on the pandemic of 1918 from the New England Journal of Medicine.

"A recent analysis showed that the pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed 50 million to 100 million people, and although its severity is often considered anomalous, the pandemic of 1830 through 1832 was similarly severe, it simply occurred when the world's population was smaller. Today, with a world population of 6.5 billion, more than three times that in 1918, even a relatively "mild" pandemic could kill many millions of people."


I've read that during the Pademic of 1912, schools were sometimes closed.

"The most frequently discussed and debated public health measure in the journals of the period was the closure of the schools. In Britain the prevalence of the epidemic led to the closure of the public elementary schools (BMJ, 11/30/1918). In France, students with any symptoms and their siblings were to be excluded from school. If three fourths of the students were absent then the whole class was to be dismissed for 15 days (JAMA, 12/7/1918). Some believed closing schools to be a useful measure to control infection but complained that it often occurred too late, after most students and teachers were sick (BMJ, 10/19/1918). "


Homeschooling is estimated to be growing at 7 to 10% a year. I wonder how we would respond if all of our friends and neighbors are compelled to be homeschoolers. How would that influence homeschool laws? What impact would it have on public education? While I hope that a pandemic never materializes, I believe it inevitably will.

----------
Technorati tags: homeschooling, homeschool, home school, home education, education, public schools, pandemic, pademic of 1918