Thursday, April 11, 2013

NASA Ames/Bruce Pittman - Commercial Space Scenarios: Effects On NASA And The National Economy Of Potential Developments Through 2025

NASA Ames/Bruce Pittman - Commercial Space Scenarios: Effects On NASA And The National Economy Of Potential Developments Through 2025

Bruce just got permission yesterday to come to Space Access. He is a contractor for NASA.  If he says anything offensive, it is his.

He made the point that tomorrow will not always be like today or yesterday!  Since it is not possible to predict the long-term future, strategic planning should consider a range of possible futures.

Leaders who can expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures will be much better positioned to take advantage of unexpected opportunities that will come along. Don't get fixated on one scenario and consider various strategies.  One strategy might be great for one scenario, but really bad for other scenarios.

What impact could the commercialization of space have on the United States economy?

Bruce's group is are looking at the period from now to about 2030.

Some of the major space trends they are looking at:

Emergence of a dynamic commercial space industry
Development of commercial orbital research and operation facilities.
Significant change in the availability and cost of access to space
Significant international competition for access to and utilization of space
Potential for accidents and loss of life and the impact on space
Aging of the Apollo generation and emergence of the millennials

Science and Technology Trends:
Increase robotics and tele-oeration capabilities
Bioengineering and synthetic biology
AI and supercomputer - modeling and simulation of very complex systems
Increase availability of and demand for higher bandwidth communications
Breakthrough energy technologies being developed
Cellular technology enhances communication and makes the internet available to most people

Demographic Trends
Increasing population and youth in development countries
Replacement only birth rate in the US; declining in Europe & Japan
Aging population in the United States
Even faster aging populations in Japan, Europe & China
Life span and quality of life shifts in OECD countriues
Increasing urban living on the US population
Increasing levels of education have led to globalization of manufacturing
Personal wealth growing

Economic and Resource Trends
United States
     Large public budget deficits in US
     Large private debt overhangds
     Uncertainty / weak demand
     Non-OECD (China, India) demand for energy, oil, increasing rapidly
     Fresh water is increasingly scarce in many place
     Rush for resources increasing commodity prices

Environmental Trends
Environment seems to be changing
Unclear about about cause and effect

Bruce encourages us to looking as things which already exist and take advantage of them.  Look at developing high return pay loads.

The full agenda for Space Access 2013 agenda.

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